New Article: Riambau, Bandwagon or Strategic Voting in Israel?

Riambau, Guillem. “Bandwagon or Strategic Voting in Israel? Note on Bargsted and Kedar 2009.” Electoral Studies 37 (2015): 63-72.

 
 

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.electstud.2014.10.007

 

Abstract

The goal of this note is to re-interpret and further analyze the results of Bargsted and Kedar (2009). BK use pre-electoral survey data for the 2006 Israeli legislative elections, and argue that a non-negligible set of individuals cast their vote in order to affect government formation and policy outcomes. Strategic considerations affect the likelihood of voting for Kadima, Labour or Likud, but not smaller parties. I contend that (i) what they are capturing is indistinguishable from a bandwagon effect, and (ii) their findings rely on the particular specification of the proxy for ‘expected coalition’ they use. I carry out the same exercise as BK using an extra set of controls for expected number of seats and an alternative specification of the proxy for expected coalition. My results show two interesting patterns. First, expected seats seem to be more important in voters’ strategies than coalition considerations. Second, there seems to be a compensatory strategic behavior among voters, as opposed to BK: increased likelihood of a rightist (leftist) coalition induces voters to vote less for rightist (leftist) parties. Finally, this note shows that model performance is significantly increased when using each of these two new variables, independently or together. These findings support the inclusion of such variables in all models which empirically assess strategic coalition voting behavior.

 
 

Cite: Diskin, The Likud: The Struggle for the Centre

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Diskin, Abraham. "The Likud: The Struggle for the Centre ." Israel Affairs 16,1 (2010): 51-68.

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Abstract

On 26 October 2008 President Shimon Peres called for new elections. The Knesset was dissolved on 11 November. Three candidates claimed that they were in the running for prime minister: Livni, Netanyahu and Barak. The election campaign would focus more on individuals than on parties. The security issue took high priority in the elections. A major issue throughout the campaign was the position of the leading parties on the establishment of two states for two peoples as part of a peace agreement. The internet became a major tool in the campaign. On the morning of 27 December, the IDF began a war in the Gaza Strip, which Israel called Operation Cast Lead. The major parties agreed to suspend their campaigns until the end of the war. Kadima’s victory with 28 seats came as a surprise. The Likud came second with 27 seats, having lost voters at the end of the campaign to the third largest party Yisrael Beiteinu, which ended up with 15 Knesset seats. Looking back at the election campaign one can best define it as a broken and shortened one.

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URL: http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a918950933~db=all

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Keywords: Downs; elections; electoral campaign; coalition formation theory; Kadima; Likud

Cite: Godberg, Kadima Goes Back: The Limited Power of Vagueness

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Goldberg, Giora. "Kadima Goes Back: The Limited Power of Vagueness." Israel Affairs 16,1 (2010): 31-50.

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Abstract

On 26 October 2008 President Shimon Peres called for new elections. The Knesset was dissolved on 11 November. Three candidates claimed that they were in the running for prime minister: Livni, Netanyahu and Barak. The election campaign would focus more on individuals than on parties. The security issue took high priority in the elections. A major issue throughout the campaign was the position of the leading parties on the establishment of two states for two peoples as part of a peace agreement. The internet became a major tool in the campaign. On the morning of 27 December, the IDF began a war in the Gaza Strip, which Israel called Operation Cast Lead. The major parties agreed to suspend their campaigns until the end of the war. Kadima’s victory with 28 seats came as a surprise. The Likud came second with 27 seats, having lost voters at the end of the campaign to the third largest party Yisrael Beiteinu, which ended up with 15 Knesset seats. Looking back at the election campaign one can best define it as a broken and shortened one.

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URL: http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a918950907~db=all

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Keywords: Kadima; Likud; Labour; centre party; neo-centrism; party identification; middle party; dealignment; realignment

Cite: Gerstenfeld, A Political History of the 2009 Campaign

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Gerstenfeld, Manfred. "The Run-Up to the Elections: A Political History of the 2009 Campaign." Israel Affairs 16,1 (2010): 14-30.

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Abstract

On 26 October 2008 President Shimon Peres called for new elections. The Knesset was dissolved on 11 November. Three candidates claimed that they were in the running for prime minister: Livni, Netanyahu and Barak. The election campaign would focus more on individuals than on parties. The security issue took high priority in the elections. A major issue throughout the campaign was the position of the leading parties on the establishment of two states for two peoples as part of a peace agreement. The internet became a major tool in the campaign. On the morning of 27 December, the IDF began a war in the Gaza Strip, which Israel called Operation Cast Lead. The major parties agreed to suspend their campaigns until the end of the war. Kadima’s victory with 28 seats came as a surprise. The Likud came second with 27 seats, having lost voters at the end of the campaign to the third largest party Yisrael Beiteinu, which ended up with 15 Knesset seats. Looking back at the election campaign one can best define it as a broken and shortened one.

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URL: http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a918950969~db=all

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Keywords: Election campaign; Operation Cast Lead; Israel: Politics, Labour Party, Kadima Party, Israel Beiteinu Party, Tzipi Livni, Ehud Barak, Binyamin Netanyahu, Avigdor Lieberman, Moshe Feiglin, Likkud Party, Elections, Elections 2009, Cast Lead / עופרת יצוקה

Cite: Sandler and Frisch, 2009 Knesset Elections from a Foreign Affairs Perspective

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Sandler, Shmuel and Hillel Frisch. "The 2009 Knesset Elections: A Foreign Affairs Perspective." Israel Affairs 16,1 (2010): 1-13.

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Abstract

Israel’s general elections in 2009 yielded three major outcomes: 1) the replacement of the bi-polar system that characterized Israeli electoral politics between 1977 and 2003 in which most parties are aligned to one of the two principal parties by a more flexible multi-party system. 2) The nearly total collapse of the Labor party and the Zionist left; for the first time since the 1920s, the Labor party was no longer a major political player, and 3). Kadima’s electoral relative success, despite scandals haunting it since 2006. Kadima has basically superseded Labor without necessarily adopting its ideology. We argue (contrary to Henry Kissinger’s quip that Israel never had a foreign policy but only a domestic policy) that primarily external factors and processes – chiefly the failure of the Oslo process in the 1990s – yielded these three outcomes.

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URL: http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~content=a918952125~db=all

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Keywords: Israeli elections; foreign affairs; Kadima; Labour; Likud; bi-polar party system; multi-polar party system

ToC: Israel Affairs 16, 1 (2010)

[Items will be posted separated, time permitting)

Israel Affairs: Volume 16 Issue 1 is now available online at informaworld^TM.

Special Issue: Israel’s 2009 Election

Original Articles

The 2009 Knesset elections: a foreign affairs perspective
Pages 1 – 13

Authors: Shmuel Sandler; Hillel Frisch

The run-up to the elections: a political history of the 2009 campaign
Pages 14 – 30

Author: Manfred Gerstenfeld

Kadima goes back: the limited power of vagueness
Pages 31 – 50

Author: Giora Goldberg

The Likud: the struggle for the centre
Pages 51 – 68

Author: Abraham Diskin

The decline of the Labour party
Pages 69 – 81

Author: Efraim Inbar

Stability in the Haredi camp and upheavals in nationalist Zionism: an analysis of the religious parties in the 2009 elections
Pages 82 – 104

Authors: Asher Cohen; Bernard Susser

The Israel Beiteinu (Israel Our Home) party between the mainstream and ‘Russian’ community politics
Pages 105 – 123

Author: Vladimir (Ze’ev) Khanin

Arab Israeli citizens in the 2009 elections: between Israeli citizenship and Palestinian Arab identity
Pages 124 – 141

Author: David Koren

 

Issues

Peace and security in the 2009 election
Pages 142 – 164

Author: Jonathan Rynhold

Corruption again, and again not decisive
Pages 165 – 178

Author: Ira Sharkansky

Israel’s religious vote in comparative perspective: an Africanist analysis
Pages 179 – 200

Author: William F. S. Miles

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Keywords: Israel: Political System, Israel: Politics, Elections, Elections 2009, Peace: Israeli Peace Movements, Religious-Secular Divide, Israel: Religion, Israeli Palestinians, Ultra-Orthodox / Haredi, Zionism, Russian Immigrants, Labour Party, Likkud Party, Kadima Party, Ehud Barak, Binyamin Netanyahu, Avigdor Lieberman